Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Zhilin only reversal of policy, only transfer the stock market

 Only reversal of policy, only one from the stock market turning
rarely leads to the bloody lessons of stock market crash in six months, plummeted 51.2%
, 4 months plunged 46%, a foreign stock market be called the big stock market crash in the history of a rare , due to the size of the State Council within three days of play and reduce stamp duty on non-Reduction Deal two cards to rescue the market, and finally turn the tide, turned the corner. but the market is in the midst of all the excitement, the more necessary in the bloodshed on the stock market crash made a profound summary of the lessons and reflection.
1. ;, so that investors can have a rational expectations, which is consistent with emerging and transitional stage of China's stock market reality. Throughout the 18 years of China's stock market, large bottom, such as the 94 325 points, 512 points 96, 99 1047 point, point, 2001-2000 1341 1300 2004 2005 998 points, or large at the top, such as 94 points in 1052, 1258 96 points, 97 points in 1510, 2001 and 2245 points, 4335 points and 2007 6124 points, are formed under the policy guidance development of a history of only a dozen years, from the birth process is marked development will play a and domestic political pressure from the tight, just entered the second phase of share reform, the size of a serious oversupply of non-lifting of the ban, inadequate corporate governance, malignant misappropriating despite repeated prohibitions, the valuation standard mercurial, short of public opinion intensified. irrational market panic and fell hard to curb the irrational, the Fund also joined the bottom of the sell into the ranks of small investors are not protected the interests of the Chinese stock market, The meeting pointed out: 20% -25% decline, it is called stock market crash, the head of government, the Congress Council, the Ministry of Finance Central Bank will soon appear in the media, went off the first line of storms to rescue the market. But what is amazing is that as important to the socialist market economy part of the Chinese stock market, March 5, tumbled 40%, the in the long-term investment of the investors are waiting for good every weekend, the result is always disappointing, is the collapse on Monday. until after 50% plunge, many people finally reluctantly last knife cut , snow was so determined to save the government, so moving, why the loss is greater than ten times, twenty times the stock market crash has as yet not save it? October 2007 is 38.4 trillion the highest market value, market value of the end of December 2007 is 32.7 trillion, but the April 22, 2008 2990 points remaining 19.8 trillion in just 6 months shrunk 18.6 trillion, equivalent to 2007 wiped out 80% of annual gop, equivalent to the loss of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the three times, with 6000 million people have wealth and wealth have all been cut, why do some people have been hit countries and interests of the people is unusually cold, indifferent, and anti-called heading for the big bailout measures of attention, at last, fell by 6 months of unilateral proud of the big stock market downturn, especially the first time in 18 years, the State Council held a special executive meeting to discuss issues the securities market, stressing: development as the guidance to deepen capital market development and operation of the understanding of the law, to promote the healthy development of capital market stability, . secondary market valuation standards and a market must not be upside down. nearly two weeks, when fall below last year's had practice. this is the responsibility of management. In a market, or even six or seven times to three or four times and re-financing of new shares issued, it is never criticized the valuation bubble, alone, but that this is When not to remind the market, should be justifiably IPO price to earnings ratio as a secondary market valuation of the bottom line. Otherwise, a similar disaster in the future will happen.
4. irrational behavior on the Fund must be strictly regulated. be regarded as the greatest strategic investment , the market leading force in the stock market crash of funds for this have the most direct responsibility. last point of the second half of the unilateral increase from 3400-6100 City is a large blue-chip fund hype caused; early April below 4,000 points, 3,400 points, also the fund in order to sell into the collective; April 21 the size of the introduction of non-Reduction Deal good sell into the bottom of 200 points that day and 23 April 3000 is also a fund breakdown dry. top of fuel, the bottom adding insult to injury; the top of value investing, investment trends of the bottom is a true portrayal of current funds, whether the Extraction of management fees by fund size, to extract the management fees according to profitability.
5.3000 near the flesh of the investors should seriously reflect on. In fact, the management point from early April 3400 began to break bailout. The first battle is April 3, 4, also sent to three of Securities News, reviews, and the second battle is April 14, 15, China Banking Regulatory Commission, the SASAC, the central bank, the Commission, the Social Security Fund responsible position, and then 16 days, Xinhua News Agency issued a series of 18 good buy, the stock market have lost an important opportunity for development , down in the predawn darkness. > b 3000: value added at the end the end the policy of non-Reduction Deal
and reducing the size of stamp duty on the two positive signs on Thursday triggered a stock market rose 9.3%, 195.8 billion is the rare sun line, so that the bottom of the a saying, test, and there have been breakthroughs in the top 2245 point of a bear market, a record high point of the brilliant 6124. In contrast, the bottom 3000 is so durable it can? can withstand 2009, 2010, 660 billion and 120 billion size of the non-lifting of the ban's impact on it? not say now.
third argument, I seem willing to believe the claim. But concern is that it can withstand more than 4,200 billion in August this year the size of the impact of non-lifting of the ban? can withstand the impact of the Olympics after the popular tide? inflation, will the regeneration of the sub-prime variable? it is also felt emboldened enough of this argument.
In my opinion, preparation. The first is early April 3400-3300 points battle area, April 3, 4, 7, the three major securities newspapers published simultaneously on a continuous theory, reviews, hoping to eliminate the irrational market panic and restore confidence. s Second Battle of 4 mid-point area 3300-3100. China Banking Regulatory Commission, the SASAC, the central bank, the Commission, the Social Security Fund Council have made a stable market leadership position .4 16 and 18, the Xinhua News Agency also issued a panic, Third Battle of 3100-3000 points in late April is a policy area to rescue the market: the State Council, the Commission sub-deputy patrol, fund managers will Well, then, the Commission issued on April 20 the size of non-reduction of the New Deal, the State Council specially convened for the first time in 18 years executive meeting to discuss stock market issues, the Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation announced the reduction in stamp duty. This shows that the defense of 3000, management of the maintenance of the stock market is stable and healthy development of the firm attitude of the scheduled announcement, policy efforts is quite similar to the 94 325 points Three rescue when the State Council issued the policy.
Second, the 3000 is the location of the parties to the limits of tolerance. from 6124-2990 points, 6 months plunged 51.2%, from 5522-2990 points, 4 months fall 46% , which are considered rare in the Chinese and foreign stock markets fell irrational. from 6124's 38.4 trillion points to 2990 points the market value of 19.8 trillion, 6 months shrunk 18.6 trillion, equivalent to 2007 wiped out 80% of annual gdp , the equivalent of a rare snowstorm before the Spring Festival this year, the loss of one or two times, equivalent to the loss of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, 3 times; majority of the stock plummeted over 60% of small and medium investors with heavy losses. If the Government do not have a strong intervention, the objective will not only affect the regulation of the effects of policies, financial security, the real economy, consumer market, and will endanger the interests of the people, social harmony and stability. So, in the short term and then break 3000 is unlikely.

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